Just saw a segment on Fox News with former President Clinton adviser Dick Morris as a guest. He said in a year when the Democrats will win the White House they nominate a guy (Obama) who can't win and the Republicans, who shouldn't be able to win the presidency, nominate a guy who can't lose in McCain.
I believe this is the first time I've said this on my blog but I'm convinced Senator Obama can't win. If you look at the electoral map and states that are, right now, swing states, it is damn hard to imagine those states breaking for Obama. I'm sorry, but even though Election Projection (the most accurate site for election predictions) currently shows Obama winning the election 293 to 245 in electoral votes, I cannot see Obama winning most of the states he now has a small lead in while on the other hand I do see McCain keeping states he has slight leads in. Come on, folks, do you really believe that when November comes around that Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will all remain Obama states? And, conversely, do you really think Nevada, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, West Virginia, or Louisiana will switch to Obama?
Of the seven states that Obama has a weak to moderate edge in, Pennsylvania could go either way (but for the purpose of this analysis, we'll give it to Obama) and Michigan will go to Obama. The rest will break for McCain. Of the nine states in which McCain has a weak to moderate edge, I frankly don't see Obama winning any of them.
That gives McCain exactly 300 electoral votes to Obama's 238.
John McCain will be the next president. When swing state voters show up at the polls in November, most who were considering voting for Obama will balk at the idea of electing America's first left-wing president and instead will opt for John McCain.
By the by, don't believe this nonsense about how Republicans will be slaughtered in the House and Senate. The GOP may lose as many as five seats in the Senate but that's far from a filibuster-proof majority. In the House, the GOP may lose as many as a dozen. Not good but hardly the slaughter some hysterics are forecasting.
If you think I'm smoking crack, tell me why.
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1 comment:
Amen brother, Amen and well put. There are tons of polls giving Obama the lead but most people don't realize that many Republicans were sitting on the sideline waiting for this Democrat fiasco to come to an end. Now that it's over, we'll see how much of a lead Mr. Obama will have. In the end, there will be no one to blame except themselves (Democrats).
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